The International Monetary Fund has warned that Nigerians may face tougher economic conditions in the near term as rising food and transportation costs continue to squeeze household incomes amid lingering global shocks. The Fund has downgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth estimate to about 4.1 percent, citing spillovers from the Middle East war and related energy and supply‑chain disruptions. Even where the IMF has upgraded Nigeria’s medium‑term growth outlook, it has stressed that the gains are fragile and highly sensitive to global energy prices and regional instability.
In Nigeria, transport costs have surged by 20–100 percent over the past 22 months, driven largely by a near‑five‑fold jump in fuel prices, which has pushed up logistics charges for food traders and other businesses. These higher transport bills are being passed directly to consumers, pushing up food prices and forcing many households to skip meals or reduce portion sizes. Nigerian households are already grappling with double‑digit inflation, with food prices rising sharply year‑on‑year, deepening the cost‑of‑living crisis and weakening the purchasing power of ordinary Nigerians.
The IMF has also highlighted that renewed energy‑price volatility and security‑driven supply shocks—especially in the Middle East—could further depress growth to as low as 2 percent in the most adverse scenarios. In this context, the Fund has urged the Nigerian government to resist populist measures such as a return to fuel subsidies and instead maintain fiscal discipline, expand targeted cash‑transfer programmes, and strengthen social protection systems. Even as Nigeria’s macroeconomic reforms show some traction, the IMF’s message is clear: rising food and transport costs, amplified by global shocks, are likely to keep living conditions tough for most Nigerians in the near term.
